Wine bar proliferation – can the market become saturated??

I live on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. Upon returning from a 4 month stay in Napa, CA about 10 months ago I discovered “wine bars” for the first time. As it turned out, there were 2 in my neighborhood. One which had been around for about a year, and another which had just recently opened up.

Fast forward 10 months. One stretch, 3 blocks long on Columbus Ave now contains 4 wine bars, another stretch on Broadway just south of the Columbus stretch contains another 2, and further uptown there is at least 1 other I am aware of which is preparing to open up.

So in about a 1 year time frame the number went from 1 wine bar to 7.

So the question is, will wine bars simply be a fad and will all these places opening up go out of business quickly?? OR will they become like the Pizzaria’s on the 50’s & 60’s & the Sushi places of the 90’s & early 2000’s, where there seems to be another pizza shop or sushi place on every corner and enough business for all of them????

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